LINDER'S LOOK: CHRISTMAS EVE EDITION
By Doveed Linder
Linder, you wrote: "Even if Bob Arum made every concession, I donít think the fight would have happened." You really believe that? If Arum and Manny Pacquiao said the very first time we will take the test instead of negotiating a cut off that the fight would not have happened? How would Floyd save face if Manny said, "OK, let's do it." Arum and Pac had every chance to call Floyd's bluff, but like Floyd, Bob knew there was more money to be made in the long run if they didn't fight. Bob's motto, "Why risk half when you can keep it all?" Floyd get's some blame, Manny get's some blame, but Bob gets most of it. The dude is as greedy as they come and the sport will be better off without him at this stage. Its sad because as many great fights Bob has promoted, he is responsible for many great fights not getting made. ODLH and Floyd both were promoted under Arum, why did they jump ship and never looked back? -Toddyrock
Linderís Response: The question I have is, how would Pacquiao and Arum have responded to Mayweatherís demands if he wasnít so insulting and verbally abusive? He didnít just ask for Manny to take a test, he went on a smear campaign and questioned the validity of his previous accomplishments. Floyd knew they wouldnít play ball if he took that approach. If I were Pac and Arum, I wouldnít have given in either.
Scott Shaffer's editor's response: If Arum and Pacquiao said the very first time we will take the test, Floyd would have responded the same way he did when they eventually did agree to testing: Floyd would have simply switched up his demands on the split or made Manny a sucker's offer like he did with the $30 million guarantee. And you would have bought it.
So Boxingtalk publisher GregLeon ducks my email because he knows he can't BS me so he sends you out to answer for him. OK its your funeral on this issue. Greg's opinion is biased. Anybody who has been to this site in the last 5 years KNOWS that Greg's "opinion" which was pro-Floyd Mayweather but turned to Mayweather is ducking Manny Pacquiao the minute there seemed to be some friction between the two. Gregs DIRECT non-relationship with Floyd affects his "opinion". And just as there are journalist who think it is Floyd who is ducking the fight, which the entire Boxingtalk staff seems to share this opinion coincidentally, there are journalist who think otherwise. As I said before, there are 3 parties here guilty of this fight not happening. 3 parties. And they all share blame equally. But 2 of those parties are on the same side. So that means a MAJORITY of the blame is opposite of Mayweather. And it disgusts me when this term "casual fan" is slung around. As if it is to minimize the intelligence of those who aren't directly associated with fighters. It's insulting to those who follow the sport. It is an attempt portray you as having greater knowledge than the person challenging your position. Greg hasn't been in touch with Mayweather since 2009 or 2009. So everything that he can relay to us would come from Bob Arums position. So on one side you have the Greg Leon's and Michael Marley's and on the other side you have Ben Thompson and others. And it becomes a mockery. Don't give me your opinion. Give me the FACTS. And the facts can easily be retraced. Bread is my man. But at least he presented some things to me from a factual perspective that were logical and objective. Gregs position is pure asshurtedness. Floyd did not duck Manny. Manny did not duck Floyd. And Doveed please dont talk about Floyd having the reputation of a dodger. He didn't have that reputation here with Boxingtalk when he was doing the weekly chats but when he pulled the plug on his association with Greg all of a sudden this becomes the place to promote Bob Arums platform as to why the fight hasnt happened. You know, Mr "I was lying yesterday, But I am telling the truth today". Mr "We need to build an outdoor stadium". Mr "Manny can't fight in May because of the cut, but he can fight the following month" all the way back in January of this year. So stop trying to insult those of us that know better just because you are the responder to this mail bag. Because I have no problem telling about the inner workings of why this fight didnt happen, why Manny brought in VisionQwest, and a myriad of other details that would make the average reader shit their pants.
Linderís Response: I can tell that Iím not going to win an argument with you, but Iíll offer a few points. First of all, Mayweather doesnít have a reputation with this site. Each writer has his own opinion. Itís not a Boxingtalk thing. If you think weíre ganging up on Floyd, go around to the boxing gyms, talk to the fans, and ask around. 90% of the people out there believe that Floyd didnít want this fight. When I made a reference to the ďcasual fanĒ, I was referring to those who only know about boxing from what they hear on ESPN. These are the people who only watch major PPV events. The fans who I have spoken with feel that Mayweather is the one to blame, just as many educated fans feel the same way. This is something that is going to be debated about for a number of years. I, myself, blame Mayweather because of the way he has conducted himself over the past three and a half years. He doesnít act like someone who wants to fight. Heís done too many things that have sabotaged this deal. Iím not saying that Arum hasnít played a part, but I do believe he felt insulted by Floyd and that he got caught up in the battle of egos. I donít think he was trying to protect his ďcash cowĒ as some people believe.
I had thumb surgery recently and can't play XBox Live (I'm not supposed to, anyways) so I decided I'd study Canelo Alvarez on Youtube since he may face Floyd Mayweather next year. I wanted to see him go 12 rounds against decent competition, so I found his fight vs. Mosely. As anyone can see, there is a lot to marvel at with this young fighter. One of the things that impressed me was that he never smothers his offense. When he's in close ripping shots, he'll inch back as needed to keep his optimal swinging distance. Sure, his offense is what puts butts in seats, but his defense is not bad at all. Sure he's hittable, but he can go defensive and pick off shots and has underrated head movement, Mosely was barely able to land clean. I also noticed that he's a decent counter puncher. I counted numerous times where he would through a hard counter right over Mosely's flick jab and he threw a pretty nice power check hook. He can fight.
I noticed a few flaws as well. The first thing I noticed is that he'll start early rounds backing away and moving, even though his oppenent is not pressing the fight. It looks as though he's taking a round off, but he can't be tired or hurt going into the second round. That leads me to believe that there may be some discipline issues; possibly loosing sight of his strategy. Or worse, it could be that he still isn't quite sure of his identity as a fighter (which I doubt). The biggest and most glaring flaw that I saw was that this young man is highly predictable. Here's why. He has a very good power jab. I saw him knock Mosely off his pivot with it once early. What keeps it from being a great weapon is that he does not use it to set anything up. He very rarely threw anything behind it, not even a 1-2, much less a hook off of it. Instead, he uses his jab defensively or to stay busy. When he decides to open up from range, it is either one of two ways; he lunges in with a left hook upstairs or downstairs, and without fail, will follow with a right over the top. His offense is more diverse if he's in close, leading with either hand, up or downstairs, but you have to wonder how often is he going to simply wind up that close to Mayweather or Sergio Martinez. Although Mayweather doesn't move as much as he used to, he certainly maintains his optimal fighting range. No one's simply going to crowd him and expect to do well. Canelo will certainly have some opportunities to wade in close or wind up there, because of his slight size advantage, but he'll be beaten to the punch all night from the outside. And Mayweather certainly ain't no slouch on the inside either. That would lead me to pick Mayweather by UD 116-112.
Martinez on the other hand would show so much footwork and elusiveness that Canelo's predictability would cost him. He'd likely find Martinez too difficult a target to track with that lead left hook due to Martinez's movement and croched-low, hands-down style. This confusion would be made worse by the fact that he'd be eating that right up-jab, followed by Martinez's powerful volleys basically all night. He might have some success in close, but that is some real estate that he would pay very dearly for and might even get KO'd in the process. I think the more likely outcome would be that Martinez would give him a one-sided demoralizing beating. The kind that is hard for a young fighter to phsychologically recover from. What are your thoughts? *Best Youtube upload for analysis is this one (www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVdKfbOYCOY) because it plays at half-speed from the second round on.* - Stan Edwards
Linderís Response: That was a very good analysis, Stan, and I think you hit the mark when you commented on Caneloís predictability. He fights out of a certain zone. Meaning, for the most part, he only has one tempo. An example of this would be his fight with Gomez. In that fight, he was actually out-boxed for four rounds. Instead of trying to solve the puzzle and make adjustments, he waited till he had an opportunity to catch him and thatís what he did. That fight led me to believe that he will have a hard time with pure boxers. It also suggested that if a fight isnít going his way, heís going to have a hard time turning things around. Canelo-Trout would be a very interesting fight. Trout would tell us more about Canelo than would Kermit Cintron and Shane Mosley. I donít think Canelo has discipline problems or issues with his identity. He just likes to take his time. He likes to feel out the first round, taste the other guyís power, and wade into the water. I also think he is just a bit arrogant. Not necessarily egotistical, but heís a little too brave for his own good. This being said, I like Canelo and I think heís a hell of a fighter. I donít think heíll turn out to be an all time great, but I view him as a legitimate top 15 pound for pound fighter. I agree with your analysis of potential fights with Mayweather and Martinez. They would both beat him, but Martinez would be a little bit trickier for the reasons you stated.
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